My Simple Minded World

2009 Game Sale Predictions

Posted in Video games by Omar Ismail on June 12, 2009

I’ll just list out the criteria and rankings for each game, with the 12-month, world-wide all major platforms sales prediction. 12-months sales, means the number of units it will sell over 12 months globally. “All major platforms” refers to 360, PS3, PC, Wii and PS2. Not counting PSP, DS, iPhone, mobile, etc. I’m not big on the handheld space.

I’ll say it right now that if I can get within 7even 50% I’ll be extremely happy.

Some Highlights

  • Assassin’s Creed 2 will sell more than AC1
  • Modern Warfare 2 will sell more than MW1
  • Forza 3 will be the best selling game in the series by far (not counting packins)
  • Bayonetta, The Conduit, The Sabateur, and Dante’s Inferno are going to sell poorly.
  • Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus are going to do substantially worse than their predecessors (WSR will by default).

Final Fantasy XIII

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  3
  • Fresh experience: 4
  • Social: 1
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 4
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 5M

Splinter Cell: Conviction

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  5
  • Fresh experience: 3
  • Social: 3 (or 4 depending on multiplayer, details are scarce on that front)
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 3 (Double Agent didn’t sell super well AFAIK)
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 2M

Forza Motorsport 3

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  4
  • Fresh experience: 3
  • Social: 4
  • Life improvement: 1
  • Brand: 4 (Forza packin)
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 6M

Alan Wake

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  4
  • Fresh experience: 3
  • Social: 0
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 2
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 1.5M

Lost Planet 2

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  3
  • Fresh experience: 3
  • Social: 3
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 2
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 500K

Red Steel 2

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  3
  • Fresh experience: 2
  • Social: 1
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 2
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 500K

Assassin’s Creed 2

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  5
  • Fresh experience: 3
  • Social: 0
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 4 (AC1 sold 8 million units)
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 10M

Modern Warefare 2

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  5
  • Fresh experience: 3
  • Social: 4
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 5
  • Timing: 4
  • Prediction: A bajillion units.

The Conduit

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  2
  • Fresh experience: 2
  • Social: 3
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 1
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 300K (100K first month)

The Sabateur

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  3
  • Fresh experience: 2
  • Social: 0
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 1
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 300K

Dante’s Inferno

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  2
  • Fresh experience: 2
  • Social: 0
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 2
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 500K

Bayonetta

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  2
  • Fresh experience: 2
  • Social: 0
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 1
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 300K

BioShock 2

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  4
  • Fresh experience: 2
  • Social: 2
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 3
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 1.5M

The Beatles: Rockband

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  1
  • Fresh experience: 2
  • Social: 4
  • Life improvement: 1
  • Brand: 5
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 2M

Wii Sports Resort

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  1
  • Fresh experience: 2
  • Social: 5
  • Life improvement: 2
  • Brand: 5
  • Timing: 2
  • Prediction: 2M

Wii Fit Plus

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  1
  • Fresh experience: 1
  • Social: 2
  • Life improvement: 4
  • Brand: 5
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 4M

Tekken 6

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  2
  • Fresh experience: 1
  • Social: 3
  • Life improvement: 0
  • Brand: 3
  • Timing: 2
  • Prediction: 500K

Tony Hawk: Ride

  • Cinematic feel/presentation (0-5):  1
  • Fresh experience: 3
  • Social: 2
  • Life improvement: 2
  • Brand: 3
  • Timing: 3
  • Prediction: 250K (highly dependent on the price, which at time of prediction is still unknown)
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One Response

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  1. duiu said, on June 25, 2009 at 1:27 pm

    Hello? Halo 3 ODST?


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